Working papers

Grey Zones in International Finance, with Amélie Guilin and Vincent Vicard



Abstract: Tax avoidance schemes generate artificially complex cross-border financial structures inflating measured international investment stocks in tax havens. Using a standard gravity framework, we estimate that about 40% of global assets (FDI, portfolio equity and debt) are `abnormal' -- unexplained -- stocks. Abnormal stocks are increasing over time and concentrated in a limited number of tax havens. Five tax havens are top outliers in all three asset categories: Cayman, Marshal Island, Bermuda, Luxembourg and Liberia. Interestingly, major media leaks such as the Luxleaks in 2014 and the Panama Papers in 2016 do not appear to have diverted cross-border investments away from the country involved.

Banks defy Gravity, with V. Bouvatier and G. Capelle-Blancard


R&R Journal of Banking and Finance, CEPR DP 12222, voxeu column

Abstract: This paper provides the first quantitative assessment of the contribution of global banks inintermediating tax evasion. Applying gravity equations on a unique regulatory dataset based oncomprehensive individual country-by-country reporting from all the Systemically ImportantBanks the European Union, we find that: 1) Tax havens generate a threefold extra presence of foreign banks; 2) The favorite destinations of tax evasion intermediated by European banks are Luxembourg and Monaco 3) British and German banks display the most aggressive strategies in tax havens ; 4) New transparency requirements imposed in 2015 have not changed European banks commercial presence in tax havens; 5) Banks intermediate e550 billion ofoffshore deposits, that is 5% of their origin countries' GDP.


The transmission channels of unconventional monetary policy, Evidence from a change in collateral requirement in France, with Pranav Garg and Jean Imbs,


CEPR DP 13693, voxeu column, online appendix

Abstract: Using a bank-firm level credit registry combined with firm-level balance sheet data we establish the presence of heterogeneity in the effects of unconventional monetary policy transmission. We examine the consequences of a loosening in the collateral eligibility requirement for credit refinancing in France. The policy was designed to affect bank lending positively. We expect a linear increase in lending and an additional increase in loans to firms with newly acceptable rating. We find a large heterogeneity of the monetary policy transmission including the unexpected reduction of lending by the banks benefiting the most from the policy. These are small, risk-averse banks whose foremost concern after the recession was to strengthen their balance sheets. Banks least affected by the policy respond with a reduction in credit to low risk borrowers in reaction tothe change in the market structure. Last we document heterogenous effects of the policy on firmsdepending on their size


Credit under influence: Evidence from France, with A. Matray and N. Pinardon-Touati

CEPR DP 14409, Available at SSRN

Piece in Le Monde


Abstract: Formally independent private banks change their supply of credit to the corporate sector for the constituencies of contested political incumbents in order to improve their reelection prospects. In return, politicians grant such banks access to the profitable market for loans to local public entities among their constituencies. We examine French credit registry data for 2007--2017 and find that credit granted to the private sector increases by 9\%--14\% in the year during which a powerful incumbent faces a contested election. In line with politicians returning the favor, banks that grant more credit to private firms in election years gain market share in the local public entity debt market after the election is held. Thus we establish that, if politicians can control the allocation of rents, then \it{formal} independence does not ensure the private sector's \it{effective} independence from politically motivated distortions.





Published papers (peer-reviewed)

Measuring the Balassa-Samuelson effect: A guidance note on the RPROD database, with C. Couharde, C. Grekou Carl, V. Mignon and F. Morvillier, International Economics, 2019

« EQCHANGE: A World Database on Actual and Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rates », with C. Couharde, C. Grekou Carl, V. Mignon and F. Morvillier, International Economics, vol.156, pp.206-230. 2018


voxeu column


Lettres du CEPII


Regime-Dependent Sovereign Risk Pricing during the Euro Crisis, with J. Fouquau and R. Portes, Review of Finance, 21(1), 363-385. 2016

voxeu column

Waves of International Banking Integration: a tale of regional differences”, with V. Bouvatier, European Economic Review, November 2015

voxeu column


Is the European sovereign crisis self-fulfilling? Empirical evidence about the drivers of market sentiments, with C. Bruneau et J. Fouquau, Journal of Macroeconomics, 42, 38-51, 2014

"The demand for money in China revisited. Understanding Money Demand in the Transition from a Centrally Planned to a Market Economy” with J. Fouquau, C. Holz,  Post-Communist Economies, 376-400, Fall, 2014,

BOFIT Discussion Paper

Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula Approach, with C. Lopez, Journal of Banking and Finance 37(12), 5346-5356, 2013

voxeu column

Asymmetric responses of prices to exchange rate variations. Evidence from majour economies.”, with A. Lopez- Villavicencio, Journal of Macroeconomics 34(3), 833-844, 2012

Has the CDS Market influenced the borrowing cost of European Countries during the Sovereign Crisis?, with M. Gex and A. Lopez-Villavicencio, Journal of International Money and Finance, 31(3), Special Issue “Financial Stress in the Eurozone “481-497, 2012

voxeu column

Press: FT Alphaville, Les Echos

Outreach: Hearing before the German Parliament in June 2012

L’accélération des réserves internationales de change dans les pays émergents” (2012), with J. Fouquau, Revue Economique, 63(5), 1013-1023


What Drove the Massive Hoarding of International Reserves in Emerging Countries? A Time-Varying Approach”, with J. Fouquau, Review of International Economics, 20(3), 164-176, 2011


The Determinants of International Reserves in the Emerging Economies: A non Linear Approach, with J. Fouquau, Applied Economics, 43(28), 4179-4192, 2011

Smooth transition in China: New evidence in the cointegrating money demand relationship” (2010), with  J. Fouquau,  Economics Bulletin, 30(1), 265-273


A Counterfactual Analysis of the Argentinean Monetary Transformation in 2002, Applied Economics, 41(27), 3533 – 3544, 2009

PhD thesis chapter 3

“De l’assouplissement des règles monétaires”, Revue Economique. 56(3),  787-797, 2005

PhD thesis chapter 2

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